Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 37.711933 44.732959 52.494166 61.681518 72.230121 83.931880 97.863378
2024-10-13 26.172434 35.040209 45.866936 59.936001 77.599188 98.894225 126.347125
2024-10-20 22.530184 32.982289 46.698756 65.741393 91.173192 123.610204 167.692110
2024-10-27 17.029341 27.120278 41.283295 62.168923 91.649506 131.160681 187.368391
2024-11-03 14.746881 25.187092 40.671367 64.644769 100.004034 149.267578 221.868812
2024-11-10 13.234428 24.062730 40.926025 68.167297 109.895161 169.980578 261.203450
2024-11-17 11.872654 22.897067 40.866073 71.051941 118.910054 189.900562 300.580655
2024-11-24 10.250934 20.987292 39.306633 71.299801 123.766489 203.872755 332.003603
2024-12-01 8.532343 18.584898 36.562539 69.219321 124.618561 211.660687 354.439010
2024-12-08 7.462629 17.194407 35.348868 69.499805 129.182977 225.324671 386.502242
2024-12-15 6.653363 16.167005 34.631375 70.510068 134.950417 241.143045 422.717461
2024-12-22 5.218155 13.566393 30.596973 65.051969 129.053846 237.493460 427.398478
2024-12-29 4.601801 12.740504 30.122923 66.603089 136.449094 257.755293 474.736843
2025-01-05 3.764628 11.233364 28.070027 64.943312 138.041637 268.626344 507.863783
2025-01-12 3.673035 11.524607 29.870039 71.186717 154.966117 307.376028 590.912681
2025-01-19 2.891259 9.830443 26.989487 67.360610 152.137609 310.726824 612.745689
2025-01-26 2.631760 9.488056 27.149002 70.014313 162.276313 338.267743 678.921421
2025-02-02 2.460197 9.356509 27.788366 73.787984 174.987533 371.378733 756.983498
2025-02-09 2.269389 9.116588 28.115562 76.876942 186.522109 402.968147 833.983445
2025-02-16 1.977214 8.469118 27.281722 77.142303 192.084347 423.415447 891.445781
2025-02-23 1.634084 7.537439 25.513108 74.914657 192.010507 432.786674 928.541295
2025-03-02 1.428382 7.026189 24.811079 75.215018 197.513753 453.534346 988.410920
2025-03-09 1.272777 6.652844 24.437808 76.296778 204.856502 478.420287 1057.560741